Rabobank: Global pork profitability is expected to stabilise in 2025
While 2024 has been a profitable year for producers, herd expansion is progressing slowly, with slight production increases in China, Brazil and Mexico, while declines are occurring in the European Union and the United States.
Chenjun Pan, senior animal protein analyst at RaboResearch, predicted favorable production conditions in the near future and that pork supply would remain stable, with growth expected to be less than 1% this year. Steady supply will be supported by manageable feed grain prices and improved animal health. Of course, however, regional supply and demand balances will vary. Sufficient supply is forecast in the United States, China, and Brazil, while the European Union, Japan, and the Philippines will likely see more limited supply.
"Lower feed costs and higher productivity have made pork more competitive, a trend that will likely continue into 2025", Pan said. "Pork is well positioned due to its reasonable price and availability, especially as beef prices remain high and demand for poultry is strong".
Demand for pork is expected to increase in North America and Brazil. Meanwhile, Europe could experience seasonal price increases. Asia could experience price fluctuations in its regions, with downward pressures in China and South Korea, but strong prices in Japan and Southeast Asia.
Just as 2024 brought mixed global import trends, the same looks set to happen in 2025, especially with the anticipation of new tariff policies from the Trump administration.
"High tariffs on imports from China, Mexico and Canada may lead to retaliatory measures affecting agricultural products, including pork", Pan said.
Additional uncertainty is due to geopolitical factors such as a possible ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, which could affect grain prices and, therefore, pork production costs. Disease outbreaks, such as the recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Germany, further complicate the trade outlook, Pan said.
Animal disease outbreaks, including African swine fever and porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv), continue to pose challenges to pork production and exports. Disease mitigation is a common strategy across the supply chain, with governments and stakeholders investing in solutions such as vaccination, biosecurity and animal health products.
At the same time, the need to improve sustainability and animal welfare is driving investments in technology, automation, digitalisation and artificial intelligence (AI). Many large-scale farms are already using sensors for disease diagnosis and monitoring, the RaboResearch report noted.
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