Global meat production to increase, trade is slowing down - FAO
Meat production is expected to increase this year, according to the latest FAO outlook. UN experts are expecting an increase of 2.2% in global meat production to 346 million tonnes. China, Brazil, Vietnam, the US, and EU will be the main areas where production is expected to grow this year. By contrast, a decline in production is expected in Australia, the Philippines, and Argentina.
Pork production will rise by 4.2% to 114 million tonnes. However, the figure is still 5% below the 2017 level, before the ASF crisis affected almost all Asian countries. Most of the expected increase is due to a recovery in production in China, which is expected to reach 46 million tonnes, an increase of 10% compared to 2020 and 85% from the pre-ASF level. World beef production is also forecast to recover slightly, by 1.2%, to 72 million tonnes. Growth is expected, particularly in the US, Brazil and China. Global sheep meat production is estimated to increase by around 1% to 16 million tonnes. Again, China is expected to be the source of much of this growth.
By contrast, the global meat trade is forecast to stagnate in 2021, totaling 42 million tonnes cwt. Pork trade could suffer this year, falling 0.6% to 12.8 million tonnes. An 8% decrease in purchases from China is expected, and moderate declines are also expected in imports from Vietnam, Canada and the UK.
Global sheepmeat trade is also forecast to contract this year, declining 0.8% to just over 1 million tonnes. Supply constraints in New Zealand and the UK will cause imports to fall in the Middle East, as well as in the US and the EU. Chinese imports are still expected to increase.
By contrast, global beef trade is expected to pick up a bit this year, increasing 1.1% to 12 million tonnes, as China will require more beef imports in the second half of the year. Brazil, Uruguay, Canada and the US will consolidate their position in this market, according to the FAO report.
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