China's beef imports are projected to grow 2 percent in 2025.
Domestic beef production in 2025 is projected to decline slightly from 7.79 million tons in 2024 to 7.74 million tons. Domestic demand remains stable, and finished cattle inventories will decline. The rate of decline in beef production will be moderate, as the slaughter of cows and beef cattle is expected to continue in 2025. Cattle that have not yet reached slaughter weight could be culled due to low prices. As cattle prices continue to fall, producers have incurred significant losses in recent years. Many producers are in debt, and some are financially overwhelmed, requiring them to sell their cattle to exit the market. This culling dynamic for liquidity is likely to persist for some time.
The USDA in Beijing forecasts that beef imports in 2025 will increase marginally due to lower domestic production and increased demand for imported cuts. "Growth will be moderated by economic headwinds and strong imported beef volumes in prior years", it added. In 2024, China imported 3.743 billion tons of beef, and a 2% increase is projected to reach 3.825 billion tons, reaching a record high.
As China's economy continues to slow and consumer spending power declines, the trend toward more frugal consumption is becoming increasingly evident. Consumers have become more price-sensitive, increasing the popularity of lower-cost South American beef. Particularly in the mid- and low-end markets, beef from South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina, with relatively lower prices, is gradually replacing the market share of more expensive beef from other countries, the USDA said. Furthermore, despite the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, South American beef remains price-competitive. Therefore, demand for South American beef is expected to continue growing in 2025.
The USDA-Beijing maintains its forecast for an increase in beef consumption in 2025, a slower growth rate than in previous years, just 32,000 tons more than in 2024. Per capita consumption still has growth potential. Rising demand for prepared foods will drive demand for low-cost cuts of beef. However, economic uncertainty and cautious consumer spending will limit the rate of consumption growth.
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