Australia: How seasonal conditions are impacting the cattle market
Meanwhile, the northern wet season arrived late this year, with many areas recorded a drier-than-usual January. Despite this, only a small area of Queensland around Barcaldine is declared “in drought” according to the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).
These seasonal conditions are having a profound impact on the market.
Premium in the south, discount in the north
On 11 February 2024, the differential between the National Young Cattle Indicator (NYCI) and the National Heavy Steer Indicator was 50¢/kg liveweight (lwt). Now, the difference between the NYCI and Heavy Steer Indicator has closed to 11¢/kg lwt. During both November and December 2024, the Heavy Steer price exceeded that of the restocker animals included in the NYCI.
However, these dynamics are not uniform nationwide.
In Roma, the Heavy Steer Indicator is currently trading at a 25¢/kg lwt discount to the Young Restocker. In this scenario, a trader relies on weight gain to return a trading profit.
In the southern markets, using Leongatha as an example, the Heavy Steer price is commanding a 76¢/kg premium to restocker prices.
Southern yards now the highest paid
The highest prices for heavy steers (finished animals bought by processors) are all recorded at saleyards in either Victoria or SA, namely: Leongatha (378¢/kg), Echuca (351¢/kg), Wodonga (346¢/kg), Shepparton (344¢/kg) and Mt Gambier (343¢/kg).
A year ago, saleyards in the north of the country held three of the top five prices for heavy steers, including Warwick, Dalby and Casino.
Over the same period, the throughput of heavy steers in the five Victorian/SA yards listed above (Leongatha/Packenham, Echuca, Wodonga, Shepparton and Mt Gambier) have fallen 47% due to dry conditions affecting the supply and quality of finished cattle.
This climate-driven reduction in supply has increased prices.
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