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USDA: China meat imports forecast higher in 2023

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Despite the challenges of the current wave of COVID-19 infections in China, the import forecasts of beef and pork in 2023 are revised up and are now forecast higher year-on-year. However, chicken meat imports are forecast marginally lower.

Posted on Jan 16 ,01:01

The upward revisions for China red meat import forecasts are partially derived from higher estimates for 2022 as fourth quarter shipments were stronger than expected. For 2023, projected economic recovery as well as the anticipated revival of the hotel, restaurant, and institutional (HRI) sector support expanding consumption and red meat imports.

Despite an upward revision for China pork production in 2023 from the October forecast, domestic supplies are virtually unchanged year on year and are unlikely to fully meet rebounding consumption.

Beef imports are expected to grow in 2023, but the pace of shipments will slow as importers have product in cold storage that needs to enter the market before they will invest in additional purchases.

China chicken meat imports are revised lower to pre-pandemic levels.

Lower pork prices are expected to lower consumer demand for chicken meat. However, chicken meat imports account for only about 4 percent of consumption.

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