Strong consumer confidence, an export uplift and a supply squeeze help protect Welsh beef prices
"We are seeing a complex blend of factors influencing the beef marketplace in the first five months of this year", said Elizabeth Swancott, HCC’s Senior Market Intelligence and Research and Development Officer. “Supply across Europe remains tight; beef imports have increased and UK production is up, meaning more product is available for export.
"In fact, GB beef exports lifted by almost 11 per cent, from 41,900 tonnes in 2023 to 46,300 tonnes in 2024, with May exports up by twenty per cent on year-earlier figures" said Elizabeth.
She said solid consumer positivity coupled with limitations on supply were likely to continue to help prices. “Ireland is our largest beef trading partner. Some 30 per cent of total exports went to Ireland but, of the 99,900 tonnes of beef imported, 77 per cent came from Ireland, representing an 18 per cent Irish product increase year-on-year for the first five months of 2024.
Elizabeth reported that GB steer deadweight price strengthened week on week throughout July but Irish beef prices saw a decline, and, as a result, the widening gap between GB and Irish steer deadweight prices made Irish beef more price competitive within the UK.
She said consumer data was showing strong beef demand and experts Kantar reported the volume of beef sold at retail was up three per cent on the year (12 weeks until July 7th).
"This data underlines how HCC’s marketing efforts continue to bear fruit both at home and overseas. For instance, the 'Uniquely Welsh, Naturally Local' domestic campaign saw awareness of Welsh Beef rise by 15 per cent to 80 per cent and propensity to purchase statistics increase by 21 per cent".
While Irish imports into GB are currently bolstered by increased demand from retail, this inward flow may not persist much longer because of impending tightening of supply. "Current Irish cattle population data suggests lower numbers of cattle of slaughter age towards the end of 2024 and into 2025", said. Elizabeth.
"This tightening of supply could have an influence on price and availability for export. In the longer term, Bord Bia forecast that Irish cattle slaughter could fall by 30-40,000 head (-2%) in 2024 for the year as a whole and may begin to influence the market towards the end of 2024 and into 2025.
"The Irish supply position, combined with the tighter EU and UK supply outlooks, and propitious consumer demand, would all suggest favourable undertones for cattle prices in the long term", she said.
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