Rabobank: Pork producers cautious about herd expansion
According to Chenjun Pan, senior analyst for Animal Protein at Rabobank, potential policy changes by the United States and its trading partners have added uncertainty to labor availability, capital allocation and global trade.
He said President Donald Trump's tariff policies will likely cause some diversion of commodity trade, but the extent of the impact remains uncertain.
Other pork insights included monitoring disease outbreaks that continue to impact markets, such as African swine fever (ASF) in Asia and Europe, along with porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSv) worldwide and a recent outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in Germany.
"Changes to countries’ disease statutes could disrupt global trade,” Rabobank said. “The suspension of German pork imports by several countries highlights how disease poses a challenge to supply chains. Biosecurity will remain a key issue for the industry, with opportunities to invest in improving animal health".
Addressing disease requires investment in animal health, agricultural equipment, automation, digitalization and AI-driven production systems.
Other forward-looking points included in the report were the possible increase in inflation for some regions in 2025, which would put downward pressure on market demand.
Some regional updates on the pork market include North America, with strong hog prices due to tighter suppliers and good demand from packers.
Rabobank also noted that pork prices in China look set to fall in 2025 due to rising production and stagnant demand.
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