Pig meat production to decline sharp
Global meat production is expected to contract by 2% this year, making this the second consecutive year of decline, says the latest FAO outlook released this month. Pig meat output is going to decline sharp (8%) due to ongoing ASF crisis in Asia and logistical issues raised by COVID-19. Most of the decline is expected to come from China (-20%), as well as Vietnam (-15%), the Philippines (-8%) and the US (-1%). With the exception of the US, where COVID-19 disruptions are behind the fall, ASF outbreaks drive the projected declines.
Excess supplies and trade disruptions weigh on international meat prices. International meat prices in May, measured by the FAO Meat Price Index, were down by 16 points (8.6%) from January 2020, with ovine meat registering the sharpest fall (-23.5%), followed by poultry meat (-11.8%), pig meat (-9.2%) and bovine meat (-4.1%). Since the beginning of the year, imports by China – the world’s largest meat importer – have eased, reflecting high stocks of meat in cold storage that resulted from imports made in preparation for the Lunar New Year celebrations, subsequently cancelled due to the emerging coronavirus crisis, which drastically reduced meat consumption.
In key exporting countries, COVID-19 lockdowns and restrictions on movement led to the loss of foodservice sales and substantial volumes of unsold meat products. While some were diverted to retail sales, the bulk, especially premium meat products and meat in large packaging, ended up in cold storage, where such facilities were available. Logistical bottlenecks, including delays in ports, reduced airfreight and container availability, and increased surveillance hampered foreign sales, adding to accumulated stocks. Meanwhile, economic hardships further reduced internal demand for meat products, adding to export availabilities, especially in countries where a large proportion of meat production is consumed domestically, for example, in Brazil and the United States.
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For the second year in a row, world meat output is forecast to fall in 2020 to 333 million tonnes (in carcass weight equivalent), 1.7% less than in 2019. Much of the contraction would again reflect a sharp drop in global production of pig meat, largely concentrated in Asian countries affected by African swine fever (ASF), but also of bovine meat, especially in the USA and Australia.
The pace of expansion for all the meat sectors has been negatively affected by COVID-19 market disruptions, adding to the effects of animal diseases, especially ASF and Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), said the report.
World trade in meat products is forecast to increase by 2.4% to 37 million tonnes in 2020, a significant slowdown from the 6.8% recorded in 2019. The increase would be entirely on account of pig meat, since trade in bovine, poultry and ovine meats are anticipated to stagnate or decline. China is again expected to be the principal engine of trade growth in 2020, with its imports surging by 24%.
More modest increases are projected for Canada, Japan, Singapore and the Philippines, while the USA, the Republic of Korea, the Russian Federation, South Africa, Vietnam, Cuba and Saudi Arabia are all anticipated to reduce their purchases. The expected global rise in import demand for meat is forecast to be met through increased exports by Brazil, the USA, the EU and the UK, Canada, Mexico and the Russian Federation.
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