IPC believes that poultry is to become the star of animal protein
A drop of 14% in total world production of pork, as China's national pig inventory represents 50% of the world's pig population, is putting poultry in position to wrest the crown from pork as the world’s most consumed meat protein, announced International Poultry Council (IPC) after its last meeting at the beginning of this month.
"Hog losses in China due to ASF will trigger big shocks in global protein markets and poultry is the meat protein with the most to win", explained Christine McCracken, Rabobank Senior Analyst, present at the IPC meeting.
According to McCracken, the world may be unable to fill the gap in meat protein foreseen in China "China produces 98 percent of its pork, so a forecasted 30 percent decline in supplies there by year’s end will lead to a decline in total world protein supplies in 2019. Expect imports of all proteins (beef, poultry, and seafood) to have a limited near-term impact. Prices for all proteins will rise".
Animal diseases in China like Foot and Mouth and highly pathogenic influenza may further complicate the picture for China’s pork and poultry producers and, by that, opening the gate for more imports.
IPC president Jim Sumner agreed with the outlook: “African swine fever is decimating China’s leading meat protein industry, and chicken is the logical alternative. With China having lost 30% of its herd to ASF and with it producing 50% of the global supply, there is no doubt that poultry is now king of the meat proteins worldwide.”
Further declines in world pork production of around 3% in 2020 are in McCracken’s forecast as Asia loses more animals and expansion in other regions not in place by then. “Stabilization will begin in 2021 and a more modest rebound of 1% to 2% in volumes in 2022-2027. Environmental and slaughter constraints are likely to limit the size and speed of expansion,” she concluded.
On the other hand, poultry production is expected to increase by 3% per year until 2021 and after that, it will fall at an average 2% increase per year. "Poultry will surpass pork in production this year and will never relinquish the crown by my reckoning", predicted another analyst, Paul Aho.
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