Health status reinforces demand for chicken meat from Brazil
ABPA's initial projections for the year indicate that Brazilian chicken meat exports should reach 5.4 million tons in 2025, an increase of 1.9% compared to the previous year. However, in January, shipments increased by almost 10%, driven by increased demand in markets such as China, the European Union and the Philippines. The appreciation of Brazilian products in the foreign market is reflected in the 20.9% increase in export revenue, exceeding the growth in the volume shipped. February should be no different, based on the weekly partial figures received, which predict shipments of over 450 thousand tons.
In the domestic market, according to the assessment of the president of ABPA, Ricardo Santin, the sector remains in balance, driven by the high demand for the product, which has positively influenced the consumption of chicken meat. National production is expected to reach 15.3 million tons in 2025, an increase of 2.7% compared to the previous year, while domestic availability is projected to reach 9.9 million tons, an increase of 2.1%. Thanks to the recognized cost-benefit of the protein, per capita consumption is expected to reach 46 kg this year, an increase of 2%.
In terms of production costs, the outlook is positive, especially in the case of soybean meal. With high global stocks and the projection of a historic harvest of over 170 million tons in Brazil, the soybean complex should help balance the sector's production costs.
According to data from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Sciences (CEPEA), in January there was a drop in the price of soybean meal in most of the monitored markets. In markets in Western Paraná, the drop exceeds 13% compared to January 2024. In other locations, such as Ijuí (RS) and Passo Fundo (RS), price drops exceed 20%.
According to the president of ABPA, the agribusinesses and cooperatives in the sector also have good expectations regarding corn production, especially in relation to the second crop, which should not face delays thanks to the good progress of the soybean harvest. The situation is especially good in the state of Mato Grosso, which concentrates half of the more than 100 million tons that should be harvested. Lower demand is also expected this year from China – the main destination for cereal exports in the global market.
"The sector does not foresee problems in accessing inputs this year. According to surveys by the National Supply Company (Conab), the corn carryover stock for the year should be higher than that recorded in 2024. Several consultancies have indicated that total production should exceed 130 million tons, favoring predictability in the cost of feed", highlights Santin.
Since January 1, more than 34 countries have already registered outbreaks of Avian Influenza, according to data from the World Organization for Animal Health (WHO). In the United States alone, there are more than 60 active outbreaks, in addition to 64 outbreaks in the United Kingdom, 76 in Germany, 40 in Poland and 36 outbreaks in the Netherlands. "If we take the last half of 2024, there are more than 50 countries in this situation", says Santin.
The outbreak of the disease in the United States, Brazil's main competitor in the international market, has reduced the availability of eggs for consumption, generating influences, including in the meat market. According to data from the country's Department of Agriculture (USDA), last year, North American exporters left a gap of 367 thousand tons in international sales of chicken meat in 2024 compared to the previous year - ending the year with shipments of 3.3 million tons.
In addition, traditionally exporting countries, members of the European Union, have also registered cases, further restricting global trade in chicken meat. In the case of the European Union, sales in 2024 are lower than those achieved four years ago.
This scenario has led importers to redirect purchases to stable suppliers, such as Brazil, according to the president of ABPA. This is the case of Congo, which increased its purchases of chicken meat from Brazil by 26% last year, while the US reduced exports by 46 thousand tons, or 49% less compared to the previous year.
"The international situation is reinforcing Brazil’s role as an essential supplier of chicken meat to several markets. The pressure of Avian Influenza on global supply has directed more importers to Brazilian products, and this movement should intensify throughout the second half of the year, a historically stronger period for exports", analyzes Ricardo Santin.
In addition to the impact of Avian Influenza on global trade, Brazil should also benefit from specific situations in strategic markets. This is the case of Mexico, which recently renewed PACIC and has already accumulated a 650% growth in chicken meat imports compared to January of the previous year. This positive flow should continue throughout the year, reinforcing the pace of Brazilian exports. It is worth remembering that the USA is the main supplier of chicken meat to Mexico, being the origin of 80% of Mexican imports.
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