EU

EU: Production declines across beef, sheep and pork meat to 2035

The EU has released its latest medium-term agricultural outlook, providing projections for key sectors, including beef, lamb and pork, up to 2035.

Posted on Jan 13 ,00:25

The report presents the medium-term outlook for the EU's agricultural markets until 2035, based on the most plausible future macroeconomic environment and the assumption that the current policy frameworks will remain unchanged.

The main drivers of the outlook include climate change, consumer demand, the availability of agricultural inputs and natural resources, consumer choices, and the evolving structure of the farming sector.

Climate change and its impacts on key natural resources pose significant challenges to agricultural productivity growth. Overall, EU agricultural production is expected to grow more slowly than in the past and may even decline for some commodities by 2035.

Consumer concerns about the impact of their diets are expected to contribute to a reduction in meat consumption, with a preference for poultry meat and plant-based proteins likely to increase. At the same time, the consumption of dairy products is expected to stabilise, reflecting changing habits and the expanding novel uses of dairy products.

Although EU agricultural production is expected to grow more slowly in the coming years, the EU is likely to remain a net exporter for several agricultural products, maintaining self-sufficiency rates above 100% for soft wheat, barley, meat, dairy products, olive oil, and wine.

As a result, the EU farming sector plays an important role in ensuring food security for both the EU and the global community.

The report is accompanied by analysis of a selected set of market uncertainties to measure the potential for variation in the results. The report also includes a what-if simulation of a stress-test to the EU feed supply chain following an adverse weather event. Additionally, the report presents a set of environmental indicators built around the baseline that shows that EU agriculture is improving with reductions in greenhouse gas and ammonia emissions, nitrogen surplus, and soil erosion.

Beef

• Production Decline: EU beef production is projected to decrease by 450,000 tonnes, reaching 6.3 million tonnes by 2035 (-6.7% compared to the 2022-2024 average).
• Herd reduction: The EU cow herd is expected to shrink by 2.9 million head (-9.6%), with the suckler cow herd falling to 9.5 million head (-7.5%) due to profitability challenges and stricter regulations on sustainability.
• Consumption decline: Per capita beef consumption is expected to fall from 9.8kg in 2024 to 9.2kg by 2035 (-5.9%) due to high prices and increased consumer concerns about environmental impact.
• Export dynamics: Meat exports are projected to grow by 0.9% per year driven by demand from key markets in the Middle East and North Africa, while live animal exports are forecast to decrease by 3.2% per year to 2035.
• Import trends: Beef imports, which declined in 2024 due to limited supply from Brazil, are projected to increase slowly (+0.6% per year), reaching 343,000 tonnes by 2035.
• Slaughter weight trends: Average slaughter weights are expected to continue rising due to better feed and herd management, though this may be partially offset by increased organic and extensive farming practices.
• Price outlook: After a period of high prices in 2022-2024, EU beef prices are expected to stabilise at around €6/kg by 2035 due to tighter supply and higher production costs.

Lamb

• Production decline: EU sheepmeat production is projected to fall by 0.7% annually, reaching 547,000 tonnes by 2035. This decline will be driven by continued reductions in the EU-14 countries, that’s EU members present before 2004 (-1.3% per year), partially offset by moderate production growth (+0.9% per year) in the EU-13, EU countries that have gained membership since 2004. Yet, this is a slower rate of decline than we’ve seen in the past decade due to coupled income support and favourable prices.
• Concentration of production: Sheepmeat production will remain concentrated in a few key countries, with Spain, Greece, France, Ireland, and Romania accounting for around 75% of total EU output.
• Consumption stability: Despite declining production, per capita sheepmeat consumption is projected to remain stable at 1.2kg per year by 2035. This is largely due to sustained demand linked to cultural and religious traditions, which tend to be less price sensitive.
• Export dynamics: Sheepmeat exports are projected to grow by 17.8%, driven by expanding demand in the Middle East. However, live animal exports are expected to decrease by 18.7%, falling to 45,000 tonnes by 2035, primarily due to animal welfare concerns and financial risks associated with long-distance transport.
• Import trends: EU sheepmeat imports are expected to increase by 10.1%, reaching 175,000 tonnes by 2035. This growth will be driven by sustained high EU prices and increased imports from New Zealand and Australia under new trade agreements.
• Price outlook: After four years of very high prices, sheepmeat prices are projected to decline slightly before trending upward again, reaching €8.6/kg by 2035 (Currently €9.25/kg as of December 2024). Despite some expected volatility, prices will likely remain above pre-2020 levels due to tight supply and relatively inelastic demand.

Pork

• Production decline: EU pigmeat production is projected to decrease by 0.5% annually, resulting in a total decline of around 1.2 million tonnes by 2035 compared to the 2022-2024 average. This reduction is primarily due to societal concerns over intensive pig farming, stricter environmental regulations, and reduced export opportunities.
• Consumption trends: EU per capita pigmeat consumption is expected to decline by 0.4% annually, dropping to 30kg by 2035 (-5% compared to 2022-2024). This decline reflects shifting dietary preferences, driven by environmental concerns and perceived health issues related to the higher fat content of pigmeat.
• Export outlook: While EU pigmeat exports surged in 2022, they are projected to decrease by 1% annually as China, the Philippines, and Vietnam recover their domestic production capacity. Despite this, the UK is expected to become the EU’s largest single export destination, even though overall UK demand may decrease.
• Import trends: Pigmeat imports to the EU are projected to decrease by 2.2% annually, reflecting the UK’s focus on domestic production and limited import increases from other countries.
• Price trends: After a price spike in 2022-2023 and a decline in 2024, EU pigmeat prices are expected to remain elevated in the medium term due to increased production costs and a tighter supply. By 2035, prices are projected to reach €2.2/kg.
• ASF risks: African Swine Fever (ASF) is assumed to remain present in the EU, but no major outbreaks are expected. Continued vigilance will be necessary to prevent significant disruptions in production and trade.

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