China set a new record for meat imports in July: 295 000 tons
In the market there was talk of a significant tonnage of Brazilian meat waiting in Chinese ports for authorization to enter.
This disquisition serves to think that surely China will not sustain the current level of income in its market as the one observed now.
Partly thanks to the delayed entry of a number of tons held in ports, Brazil recovered its 50% market share in July, which it had already reached last spring, and which it later lost for various reasons, to which was added the self-embargo from February-March, which brought it to a floor of 19% in May.
The 31 participation points gained in two months were at the expense of Argentine and Uruguay (7% each), Australia (5%) and the US and New Zealand (4 each).
Argentine managed to maintain a comfortable second place, with 17% in July, although lower than the average of the previous months.
On the other hand, Uruguay continued to lose market share, falling below 10%, which had only happened twice in the last 20 months, and approaching the usual market shares of Australia, New Zealand and the USA.
Prices keep falling
The average cif price for boneless frozen meat peaked a year ago (Jul'22, with USD 7,600/t), after which it fell without interruption to 5,400 last March. In April and May it rebounded to reach 5,900, which seemed like a change in trend, but it fell again in June and July, with 5,550 in the latter.
Nobody dares to make a forecast of the value in the coming months. There are several reasons to think about the difficulty of its strengthening. The general results of the Chinese economy are worse than expected, activity is slowing and there are deflationary pressures.
On the other hand, the second half of the year has always been the most active and interested in terms of meat imports.
So far this year, China imported 1.52 million tons, 100 thousand (7%) more than in the comparable period of 2022 and 230 thousand (17%) more than in 2021.
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