China’s Pork Market Starts a New Cycle
The report explained that between January 2003 and June 2022, China’s pork market went through five full cycles, each lasting around three to four years. The latest cycle, however, will differ from previous ones, as the market is more consolidated, economic growth is slower, and there is a greater social and environmental focus in China.
“We expect the new cycle to have less price volatility and a slightly shorter length compared to previous cycles,” said Chenjun Pan, senior analyst of animal protein at Rabobank. “Where cost leaders were the survivors from the previous cycle, in the longer term, winners will be those who are not only cost leaders but are also able to integrate supply chains.”
According to Rabobank, each cycle is triggered by different factors, with the industry in different stages of development. Still, recent cycles have all pushed the pork industry closer toward consolidation, industrialization, and modernization. In addition to current market conditions, other factors will also influence this new cycle: China is currently in a transitional period of economic and technological development; new trends, like convenience, are influencing consumer demand; and social issues are putting climate change and the need for emissions reductions under the spotlight.
All of this should lead to greater governmental oversight and further consolidation, the report suggested.
Additionally, if COVID continues to spread or COVID-related policies are not relaxed in the near term, Rabobank said the economy would be impacted further.
“The top 20 companies produced over 20% of the national total in 2021, compared to 11% in 2019. This leaves less space for smallholders, who tend to react to market signals immediately. As a result, market volatility is expected to be lower,” explained Pan. “We expect this cycle to be a bit shorter than previous ones, as large-scale players can respond quickly by ramping up supply.”
Local and global players will find opportunities in this new cycle. According to Pan, three main areas will offer considerable growth potential: productivity development, market consolidation, and international trade.
China to remain top pork importer
Even as the country begins a new chapter, Rabobank expects imports will be in the range of 3 million to 3.5 million metric tons. The report pointed out that import origins have changed greatly due to trade policy, cost competitiveness and increasing production in some exporting countries.
Rabobank said Spain has been the largest origin for China’s imports during the first half of 2022, followed by Brazil, Denmark, the U.S., and Canada.
“We don’t see much change in terms of import origins going forward, but Brazil has the potential to further increase its share,” the report noted.
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