ASF outbreaks may impact EU pork exports
The ASF situation in China has increased the demand for pork in the global market and, for now, the EU is best positioned to benefit from this. Nevertheless, small-scale ASF outbreaks in Eastern Europe may impact in the future pork production and exports, according to the latest Rabobank analysis.
"Across Europe, most farmers remain cautious about expansion, despite higher prices… Romania, in particular, has been challenged by ASF in domestic animals, due to the widespread nature of backyard farming operations," mentioned the report. Prices in the Netherlands and Spain have reached their highest level in five years, reflecting “a slow reduction in pig herds at a time of firm export demand – and, as a result, we expect prices to remain elevated", said the analysts.
Spain is the leader in pork exports to China, supplying 160,000 tonnes of pork in the first six months of this year compared to 120,000 tonnes in the same period in 2018. The same analysts are predicting a decline of 50% in the Chinese pig herd in the next months and that could lead to a sharp rise in demand for pork from China.
For now, Beijing is caught in a trade war with the US and has stopped pork imports from Canada. US pork is subject toa 72% duty on the Chinese market and Canadian pork producers have been blocked since the end of June. In the first six months of 2019, Spain, Germany and Canada were the three largest pork exporters to China exporting roughly 160,000 tonnes, 140,000 tonnes and 130,000 tonnes respectively.
Brazil came in fourth place with 80,000 tonnes and is expected to increase the volume of pork shipped to China in the second half of the year and in 2020. Still, for European producers, any unexpected situation raised by the African Swine Fever disease can limit the volumes exported to China.
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