AHDB: Sheep meat production forecast to increase in 2025 despite challenges
This increase is largely supported by a higher carryover of lambs from 2024, which will contribute to higher slaughter numbers in the first half of the year.
However, the lamb crop for 2025/26 is predicted to fall by 2% compared to the previous year, bringing the total to 15.5 million head. This decline is primarily driven by a reduction in the size of the female breeding flock, which has been shrinking steadily, and is forecast to reduce by 2.5% year-on-year.
Becky Smith, AHDB Senior Analyst (Livestock), said:
"The reduction in the breeding flock is a key concern for the long-term sustainability of the sheep meat sector. While the carryover of 2024-born lambs will boost slaughter numbers in the short term, the overall forecast for 2025 reflects ongoing challenges in maintaining flock sizes, which will impact lamb production in the years to come".
Despite a slight reduction in the overall lamb crop, demand for UK lamb is expected to remain robust in some markets.
Exports are forecast to grow by 0.9% in 2025, primarily driven by continued demand from the European Union, with France being the largest market for UK sheep meat. However, imports are anticipated to fall by 13%, largely due to higher domestic supply, although they remain historically high.
In terms of domestic demand, retail and foodservice consumption of lamb is projected to decrease by 2% year-on-year following the exceptional demand in 2024. This is attributed to a combination of economic uncertainty and an expectation of fewer promotional deals.
Becky added: "The economic climate will certainly play a role in shaping consumer demand for lamb in 2025. With less emphasis on deep promotions and potentially lower spending, we expect some softening in demand. However, added-value products like ready-to-cook lamb cuts and meal deals could help sustain interest in the category, especially in the retail sector".
Production of lamb in the first half of 2025 is expected to be higher, thanks to the carryover of lambs, but clean sheep slaughter in the second half is predicted to remain steady. This more typical slaughter pattern, coupled with the expectation of stable carcase weights, means total production for the year should see a modest increase.
As the sheep meat industry heads into 2025, the ongoing challenges of a smaller breeding flock, potential disease risks, and the unpredictability of weather conditions could influence the sector’s stability.
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