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AHDB analysis forecasts falling UK meat production to 2030

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Key to the strategic planning of meat processing businesses is knowing how future cattle and sheep supplies may change. AHDB's latest analysis looked at three possible scenarios, all of which presage a fall in production.

Posted on Dec 13 ,00:25

AHDB explains: "The baseline scenario for beef forecasts a 6.1% decline in production by 2030. With more positive market conditions and profitability, the best-case scenario could look like a 5.2% drop in production, while the best-case + is a forecasted reduction of 2.2%."

The report also highlights some areas where the beef and sheep sectors need to "think and act differently to mitigate a reduction in domestic supplies."

One of the areas includes developing overseas markets which, as meat exporters know, isn't as straightforward as in many other industries.

Because the export market depends on getting the best available price for product for which there is little demand (low price) in the UK, it's common for exporters to ship to where ever the highest prices are being paid. That might be Chile one month and China the next. Unless there's a huge regular volume of the same product to the same market, many exports fall into this more opportunistic way of trading.

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